A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
